How Accurate Is Tesla’s Yearly Delivery Projection? Year-by-Year

Tesla has gone through some difficult times over the last couple of years. They had to push their employees to get as many cars as possible out of the doors at the end of each quarter. So, how accurate are Tesla delivery estimates?

Tesla’s yearly delivery estimate has been over 90% within its own projections over the last 8 years. The company went through production hell in 2018 and only managed 49% delivery of its own projections. Tesla projects deliveries of over 1.4M in 2022 and expects to surpass that with new factories built.

As usual, I go into further detail in the article below. So if you need more interesting info, check it out!

Accuracy of Delivery Estimates Through the Years

The accuracy of Tesla’s delivery estimate has been going on unpredictable patterns since time immemorial, so it’s difficult to identify an exact time range to pinpoint the annual gap between ETA and actual delivery date. 

What we know for sure is that the company has been continuously struggling to reach its delivery target every year and that the customers are growing frustrated over the CEO’s empty promises.

To give you some visuals, we created a table providing a general picture of Tesla’s annual target deliveries vs. the number of vehicles they delivered at the end of each year. This table covers the year 2015 to 2021, enough to give you an answer to the question, “Does Tesla deliver to its targets?”

Year	Target Deliveries	Number of Vehicles Delivered	Percentage Delivered
2015	55,000	50,580	92%
2016	80,000	76,230	95%
2017	100,000	103,091	103%
2018	500,000	245,240	49%
2019	360,000	367,500	102%
2020	500,000	499,550	99%
2021	1,000,000	936,172	94%
2022	1,400,000	TBA	–

As you can see, there have been fluctuations in Tesla’s annual forecasts. This is caused by the changing situation in the global supply chain, where shortages affect the whole automotive industry.

3 Tesla Delivery Estimate Factors

If you’re waiting for your car to arrive after making your Tesla purchase, we get the frustration. With Tesla’s website pushing back the delivery time multiple times a day, you can confidently make the assumption that weather forecasts are more accurate.

To help you understand the reason behind the late delivery of your vehicles, here are some main factors that contribute to Tesla’s inaccurate delivery estimate.

1. Over Optimism

The general sentiment among Tesla clients is that they are very open to late deliveries as they understand that the production of a Tesla will really take time.

What they get frustrated about are empty promises and the delivery dates that keep changing, which add to their growing anxiety.

No need to sugarcoat things—much of this inconvenience can be blamed on Tesla, specifically on the company’s aggressive planning strategies.

For the most part, Elon Musk’s arrogance in promising things that can’t be fulfilled despite the ongoing supply chain crisis is why they are unable to meet their deadlines.

2. Chip Shortage

Aside from Tesla’s over-optimism, another major issue that affects the whole automotive industry is shortages in the global supply chain. Scarcity in semiconductor chips, in particular, is still a growing concern to the company. 

This global phenomenon forced Tesla to cut down a steering component in their vehicles’ power system and made matters on deliveries even more complicated. The chip shortage also pushed back the rollout of Cybertruck to 2023, which means another promise that Musk has failed to deliver.

3. High Mix of Custom-Ordered Vehicles

Considering that Teslas are customizable with a lot of configuration options for the interior, wheels, and exterior color, a high mix of custom-ordered cars may be one of the reasons for the company’s unreliable delivery estimate. 

Thousands of customers order different combinations of customizable features for their vehicles, and the factory tailors every car in the specific order it was purchased. 

Present Estimate

According to Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk during the report of their fourth-quarter results in January, the company won’t be releasing any new models in 2022 due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage.

There was also no official forecast announced for this year, but by looking at the company’s performance in the first quarter, we can say that Tesla is performing well so far.

As per the official press release, Tesla was able to ship 310,048 vehicles during the first quarter of this year, outpacing the 184,800 deliveries they made in the first quarter of 2021.

If the company keeps up with this momentum, there’s a huge chance that it will go above and beyond its 2021 achievement.

Of course, we should still take the persisting supply chain problems into account. Analysts report that the chip shortage can be expected to last until 2023, but (non-surprisingly) Tesla Inc. still confidently predicted that it would deliver 50% more vehicles than last year. 

This might be possible given the innovative measures Tesla is currently practicing to defy chip shortage, but buyers should expect longer delays in shipment and production.

The Future of Delivery Estimate Accuracy in the US

As of writing, a new Tesla Gigafactory is being established in Austin, Texas to join the ones in Fremont, Nevada, New York in the US, and Shanghai, China. This is where the company plans on setting up its headquarters. 

Most Tesla models are sold out until 2023, and delivery estimates for the recent orders are pushed to a timeframe between January to July of next year, depending on the model. 

With the forecast becoming a bit more reasonable than usual, along with the increased number of Tesla’s plants and Gigafactories, it might soon be possible for production to speed up and the delivery estimate to become relatively more accurate.

To learn more about Tesla’s latest Gigafactory, you can watch this video.

Tesla May Arrive Before Estimated Delivery

It’s possible for your Tesla to arrive before the estimated day of delivery, but it rarely happens. To increase the chances, you must purchase a low-demand model in the inventory during the initial months of a quarter.

Tracking the Delivery Status of Your Tesla

Tesla has no delivery tracking feature so far, but it’s possible to track your car’s shipment status if its carrier has that feature. After receiving your VIN, you’ll need to enter it into the carrier’s tracking website.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mqyiU6KjwI

Tesla EV	Original Estimated Delivery	Revised Estimated Delivery
Model Y Long Range	September 2022	April 2023
Model X 2021	December 2021	July 2022
Model S Long Range	November 2022	March 2023
Model X Long Range	October to December 2022	March 2023

Timeline of Tesla’s Delivery Estimates and Actual Deliveries from 2015 – 2022

Frequently Asked Questions

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